3 nous artícles

On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe

 

Marco Turco, Jost von Hardenberg, Amir AghaKouchak, Maria Carmen Llasat, Antonello Provenzale, Ricardo M. Trigo

 

Summer fires frequently rage across Mediterranean Europe, often intensified by high temperatures and droughts. According to the state-of-the-art regional fire risk projections, in forthcoming decades climate effects are expected to become stronger and possibly overcome fire prevention efforts. However, significant uncertainties exist and the direct effect of climate change in regulating fuel moisture (e.g. warmer conditions increasing fuel dryness) could be counterbalanced by the indirect effects on fuel structure (e.g. warmer conditions limiting fuel amount), affecting the transition between climate-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes as temperatures increase. Here we analyse and model the impact of coincident drought and antecedent wet conditions (proxy for the climatic factor influencing total fuel and fine fuel structure) on the summer Burned Area (BA) across all eco-regions in Mediterranean Europe. This approach allows BA to be linked to the key drivers of fire in the region. We show a statistically significant relationship between fire and same-summer droughts in most regions, while antecedent climate conditions play a relatively minor role, except in few specific eco-regions. The presented models for individual eco-regions provide insights on the impacts of climate variability on BA, and appear to be promising for developing a seasonal forecast system supporting fire management strategies.

Article: http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-00116-9

Analysis of geographic and orographic influence in Spanish monthly precipitation

J. Álvarez-Rodríguez, M. C. Llasat, T. Estrela

Precipitation is a major concern in water resources studies. Being a main variable, the inefficiency of historical ground network, particularly at higher altitudes where precipitation and runoff augmentations are expected, constitutes a major drawback. This work analyses the competence of Spanish historical precipitation network and explores the physiographic influence of elevation and orientation at a national scale. The usefulness of slopes is also explored. Nearly 12 000 monthly precipitation series recorded from the 19th century until the hydrological year 2004/2005 over a high-resolution topographic map (200 m) of Spanish territory are used. Comparable statistics and precipitation lapse rates are managed once a completion of gaps is accomplished. Then, Spanish yearly rates range from 0.3 to 1.2 mm m−1, reaching 1.5 mm m−1 in Northern Iberian Peninsula, diminishing at highest altitudes.

Article: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.5007/full

Bias correction and downscaling of future RCM precipitation projections using a MOS-Analog technique

M. Turco, M.C. Llasat, S. Herrera, J.M Gutiérrez

In this study we assess the suitability of a recently introduced analog-based Model Output Statistics (MOS) downscaling method (referred to as MOS-Analog) for climate change studies and compare the results with a quantile mapping bias correction method. To this aim, we focus on Spain and consider daily precipitation output from an ensemble of Regional Climate Models provided by the ENSEMBLES project. The reanalysis-driven Regional Climate Model (RCM) data provide the historical data (with day-to-day correspondence with observations induced by the forcing boundary conditions) to conduct the analog search of the control (20C3M) and future (A1B) global climate model (GCM)-driven RCM values. First, we show that the MOS-Analog method outperforms the raw RCM output in the control 20C3M scenario (period 1971–2000) for all considered regions and precipitation indices, although for the worst-performing models the method is less effective. Second, we show that the MOS-Analog method broadly preserves the original RCM climate change signal for different future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100), except for those indices related to extreme precipitation. This could be explained by the limitation of the analog method to extrapolate unobserved precipitation records. These results suggest that the MOS-Analog is a spatially consistent alternative to standard bias correction methods, although the limitation for extreme values should be taken with caution in cases where this aspect is relevant for the problem.

Article: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD025724/abstract

10th HyMeX Workshop, 4-7 July 2017, Barcelona, Spain

Barcelona, Spain

The 10th HyMeX workshop will take place from 4 to 7 July 2017, in Barcelona, Spain.
It will be organized by the Water Research Institute (IdRA) and the Faculty of Physics from the University of Barcelona.

  • 2d circular in pdf format
  • Short abstracts for oral or poster presentations are invited related to the Mediterranean water cycle.
    Themes of particular interest are: heavy precipitation, flash-flood and vulnerabilities, Mediterranean cyclones, ocean circulation and dense water formation, droughts and water resources. Contributions on recent advances in prediction and management of the water cycle, its link with renewable energy, its related hazards and their impacts, from nowcasting to climate scales, are also welcome.
    Short abstracts can be submitted online here (Submission deadline is extended to 17 March 2017)
  • Registration form
Scientific committee
    M.C. Llasat (Chair, U. Barcelona, Es), V. Ducrocq (Co-chair, CNRM, Fr), P. Alpert (TAU, Is), M. Borga (U. Padova, It), I. Braud (IRSTEA, Fr), S. Coquillat (LA, Fr), Ph. Drobinski (LMD-IPSL, Fr), C. Estournel (LA, Fr), E. Flaounas (NOA, Gr), N. Fourrie (CNRM, Fr), V. Homar (UIB, Es), S. Khodayar (KIT, De), V. Kotroni (NOA, Gr), P. Quintana (O. Ebre, Es), S. Somot (CNRM, Fr), A. Turiel (ICM, Es)
Organizing committee
    M.C. Llasat, J. Martin-Vide, J. Bech, N. Casals, P. Guitchev (IdRA, U. Barcelona), M. Llasat-Botija, A. del Moral, M. Cortes, J. Gilabert, (U. Barcelona), P. Quintana (O. Ebre), L. Labatut, O. Roussot (CNRM, Fr)

ACCOMMODATION:

Ofertes de postdoc

POSTDOC 1:

cnrm

POSTDOC 2:

med-climate-modelling

More information in: HYMEX

13 COLLOQUE GÉORISQUE

colloque-georisque

GAUDIR UB – CLIMA I CANVI GLOBAL

El projecte GAUDIR UB és un programa d’activitats acadèmiques organitzat des de l’Àrea de Formació Complementària.

Aquest projecte pretén posar a disposició de la societat el coneixement que es genera a la Universitat de Barcelona. Es tracta d’un conjunt d’activitats acadèmiques de format presencial i de marcat caràcter divulgatiu, amb el rigor i la qualitat que n’asseguren una institució com la Universitat de Barcelona.

gaub

En el marc d’aquesta iniciativa, el grup GAMA fem un curs durant aquest primer trimestre. El curs es diu: Clima i Canvi Global.

L’objectiu del curs és, per una banda, proporcionar els coneixements bàsics de meteorologia i climatologia per comprendre el canvi climàtic, així com les novetats aportades pel darrer informe de l’IPCC. Es tindran presents els canvis socioeconòmics més rellevants i els impactes del canvi climàtic, particularment en els riscos naturals. Per altra banda, es tracta de generar un espai de reflexió i donar eines per participar activament en un desenvolupament sostenible. S’inclouran sessions més pràctiques que permetin el debat i la interacció i es mostraran les tecnologies que s’utilitzen en aquest camp d’estudi.

El cinquè informe de l’IPCC va posar de manifest l’elevat acord sobre el paper de l’activitat humana en el canvi climàtic i la necessitat d’actuar. La Conferència de les Parts (COP21) celebrada al 2015 va acabar amb l’Acord de París, un acord històric que suposa un compromís mundial per abordar el canvi climàtic. El repte que se’ns presenta, com a individus i societat, és altament complex i per abordar-lo el coneixement és i serà una de les eines més eficaces.

Si esteu interessats en participar apunteu-vos en aquesta pàgina:

GAUDIR UB

PhD position: IMPREX: IMproving PRedictions and management of hydrological EXtremes

Post Doc position in the EU H2020 funded project “IMPREX: IMproving PRedictions and management of hydrological EXtremes”, which shall be focussed on probabilistic multi-parameter flood damage modelling for residential buildings and companies using Bayesian Networks. Deadline for the submission of application is 31st of August, see job announcement attached. Please forward the job offer to anybody who might be interested.

INFO- IMPREX

Encíclica y cambio climático

Esta mañana ha salido a la luz pública la carta encíclica del Papa “Laudatio SI, sobre el cuidado de la casa común”. Como científicos y científicas que dedicamos nuestra investigación al estudio del cambio climático y los riesgos naturales, y sintiéndonos comprometidos y comprometidas con el desarrollo sostenible, el presente y el futuro de la Tierra y la sociedad, no podemos dejar de hacernos eco de ello. Dirigida “a cada persona que habita este planeta”, denuncia “el daño que le provocamos a causa del uso irresponsable y del abuso de los bienes que Dios ha puesto en ella. Hemos crecido pensando que éramos sus propietarios y dominadores, autorizados a expoliarla”. Partiendo de una reflexión iniciada hace ya tiempo, y basándose en corroboraciones científicas, va desgranando aspectos tal vez ya conocidos por nosotros, como la Contaminación y el Cambio Climático, la Cuestión del Agua o la Pérdida de Biodiversidad, pero aportando una reflexión que trasciende nuestro entorno académico y engloba la humanidad y el ecosistema Tierra en su totalidad. A aquellas personas que hayan leído el último informe del IPCC (2013, 2014), sobre todo el del grupo de trabajo sobre impactos y adaptación, el mensaje no les resultará extraño: el propio IPCC se hace eco de la creciente presión de la actividad humana sobre la Tierra y las desigualdades sociales. La Encíclica no es sólo una llamada dirigida a los católicos, sino dirigida a todas las personas, creyentes y no creyentes, por un mundo mejor.

La podéis encontrar en

http://w2.vatican.va/content/dam/francesco/pdf/encyclicals/documents/papa-francesco_20150524_enciclica-laudato-si_sp.pdf

Dra. María del Carmen Llasat